A plane operated by Azerbaijan Airlines, Flight J2-8243, crashed in Kazakhstan on December 25, killing 38 people. Preliminary findings from Azerbaijan’s investigation suggest that the plane was shot down by a Russian air defence system, though there is no indication it was intentional.
The Crash and Its Path
The Embraer passenger jet, which took off from Azerbaijan’s capital, Baku, was headed to Grozny in Russia’s southern Chechnya region. However, it diverted off course and flew hundreds of miles across the Caspian Sea. The plane then crashed near Aktau in Kazakhstan, reportedly after suffering an emergency. Russia’s aviation authority suggested the emergency might have been caused by a bird strike, but officials did not explain why the plane crossed the Caspian Sea.
The Preliminary Findings
Sources familiar with the investigation told Reuters that initial findings point to the plane being struck by a Russian Pantsir-S air defence system. The aircraft’s communications were reportedly disrupted by Russian electronic warfare systems while approaching Grozny. One source stated, “No one claims that it was done on purpose. However, taking into account the facts, Baku expects the Russian side to confess to the shooting down of the Azerbaijani aircraft.”
Read more: Video Captures Moments Before Azerbaijan Plane Crash
Russia’s Response
Russia’s Defence Ministry has not yet commented on the incident. A U.S. official also suggested that a Russian anti-aircraft system might have hit the plane, and Canada called for an open and transparent investigation. However, Kazakh officials, said they could not confirm whether Russian air defences were involved, as the investigation is ongoing.
Evidence of Anti-Aircraft Fire
Footage shot by passengers on the plane before the crash showed oxygen masks deployed, and some passengers were seen wearing life vests. Later footage showed bloodied survivors. The wreckage appeared to have shrapnel damage to the tail section of the plane. Aviation security firm Osprey Flight Solutions also noted that the plane was in an area with heavy air defence activity, leading to suspicions that the aircraft may have been struck by anti-aircraft fire.
Russian Defence Activity
Earlier on the day of the crash, the Russian Defence Ministry reported shooting down 59 Ukrainian drones in southern regions, some of which were in closed airspace. Ukraine has repeatedly targetted Russia’s southern areas with drone strikes since Moscow’s invasion in 2022. The plane’s GPS data also showed evidence of jamming, which is commonly used by Russia against Ukrainian drones.
While the investigation continues, early findings suggest that Russian air defences may have played a role in the downing of the Azerbaijani airliner. The full cause of the crash is yet to be confirmed, and further investigation is needed to establish the facts.
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