A panel of experts recently reported an 80% probability of a megaquake in the Nankai Trough. The previous assessment estimated the chances at 70-80% but has now been revised to include new seismic data. Each January, scientists update these predictions based on the latest information on earthquake activity.
Japan’s Seismic Activity will Continue
Since January 1, 2024, several earthquakes in Japan, each exceeding 6.0 in magnitude, have occurred. Naoshi Hirata, an emeritus professor of geophysics in the Department of Earth and Planetary Science at the University of Tokyo, wanted people to be on the alert regarding possible aftershocks. These earthquakes suggest Japan could experience continued seismic activity for some time.
Rare Events Increase Uncertainty
Japan is now seeing unusual seismic patterns that experts have not observed before. As a result, predicting future events has become more challenging. Earlier this week, the Japan Meteorological Agency issued its second-ever Nankai Trough Extra Information. This followed a 6.6 magnitude earthquake in southwestern Japan.
Read more: Devastating Earthquake Strikes Tibet, Leaves Dozens Dead
No Special Alert Issued Yet
Despite recent earthquakes, officials have not issued a special alert for a megaquake. They determined that the risk did not immediately increase. However, these events serve as a reminder for people to stay vigilant and prepared.
Recent Earthquakes in Miyazaki
An earthquake of 7.1 magnitude hit the sea off the Miyazaki Prefecture, triggering an advisory for the Nankai Trough quake on 8 August 2024, the first such advisory issued since 2017, when the Japanese government started employing the system. A few days back, on 14 January 2025, workers were repairing a water pipe in Miyazaki that had been damaged during yet another earthquake, this time measuring 6.6 on the Richter scale.
Japan’s Long History of Earthquakes
Japan has its share of destructive earthquakes; this is because of its location within the Pacific Ring of Fire. The 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, with a magnitude of 9.0, wreaked havoc and caused massive tsunamis. It is also a grim reminder of the devastation natural disasters could unleash.
What is the Nankai Trough?
The Nankai Trough is a deep trench along Japan’s Pacific coast where two tectonic plates collide. Scientists warn that a magnitude 8 to 9 earthquake in this area could cause massive tsunamis and widespread damage.
Experts urge people in Japan to remain prepared as the risk of a megaquake continues to grow.
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