TRG Pakistan’s shares are likely to dip to Rs64-68 a share after Greentree Holdings Limited’s tender offer, as per KTrade’s research. The overseas holding company, which has a substantial holding in TRG Pakistan already, plans to boost its holding to about 64.8% by acquiring a further 35.1% of the shares at Rs75 a share on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX).
The tender offer, which was earlier suspended over a shareholder petition, was allowed to proceed following the dismissal of the legal action by the Islamabad High Court. According to the new schedule, the tender process will be open between March 25 and April 4, 2025.
KTrade’s Valuation and Analysis
KTrade’s research puts TRG Pakistan’s post-tender NAV at Rs64-68 a share, based on the firm’s cash holding and investments in Ibex and Afiniti. These do not include anticipated legal and admin costs.
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Greentree Holdings’ hostile buyout bid is just part of its continued bid to return monetisation proceeds to TRG Pakistan shareholders. The company also bought $86 million worth of shares in 2022 from the disposal of eTelequote, and the recent offer involves the liquidity of more than $52 million derived from the disposal of TRG’s interests in Ibex, a Nasdaq-listed firm.
Challenges Holding TRG Pakistan Back
Despite its successful ventures with Ibex and eTelequote, which brought a 5x return on total US dollar capital deployed, TRG Pakistan’s potential has been limited by challenges within Afiniti. The exit of Afiniti’s CEO and ongoing shareholder disputes have prevented full value realization.
An Opportunity for Investors to Exit?
KTrade believes the tender offer could be an attractive exit for investors who do not want to hold on to these issues to unwind. Also, post-book closure on February 21, 2025, the market price of TRG Pakistan shares would be based on the NAV instead of the tender price.
TRG Pakistan’s stock closed at Rs70.31 per share on March 19, 2025, an increase of 5.54% with a turnover of 28.32 million shares. This trend might be short-lived as market players wait to see how the tender offer goes and if Greentree Holdings’ increased control will have an impact on TRG Pakistan’s future direction.
The next few weeks will be defining for the shareholders who wish to either get out of the company or stay put for future appreciation.
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